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Trump tariff threat roils markets

Global markets reacted with volatility on Tuesday following US President Donald Trump's announcement of potential 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada starting February 1. The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar both declined sharply versus the US dollar, with the latter hitting a five-year low. US markets were closed on Monday for a public holiday but Asian stock markets experienced fluctuations to start Tuesday, with most major indices making gains later in the session. Meanwhile, the US dollar rebounded strongly. Investors remain cautious as they anticipate further policy developments from the new administration.

Date
Auteur
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Temps de lecture
5 minutes

Elections in the United States of America
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In addition to tariff-related news, Trump’s energy and environmental policies were under scrutiny by market participants. The newly inaugurated president announced a national energy emergency on Monday to expedite oil, gas, and power project permits, reversing many of former President Joe Biden's environmental policies. Trump’s measures include withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement, promoting fossil fuel development, and suspending EV and offshore wind initiatives. Trump also plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was significantly depleted under Biden. The administration aims to reduce energy prices and bolster national security by increasing domestic energy production.

Volatile Asian trading

Initial market reactions were missing out of the US as markets were closed due to the Martin Luther King Day public holiday, but trading in the Asia-Pacific region was volatile on Tuesday. No immediate tariffs on China were imposed by the incoming administration, but the threat of future tariffs remains, creating uncertainty in global trade dynamics. Mainland China’s CSI 300 was little changed on Tuesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.9%. Other stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly trading higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.3%, while Korea’s Kospi ended the session marginally lower. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.7% higher.

Bitcoin briefly hits record high amid Trump coin launches

Bitcoin reached a new all-time above USD 109,000 on Monday as traders reacted positively to the inauguration of President Donald Trump and the launch of Trump-themed meme coins. The flagship cryptocurrency was initially buoyed by the introduction of the "Official Trump" and "Melania" meme coins over the weekend, which have seen significant market activity. The launches reinforced confidence that the incoming administration will be supportive of the cryptocurrency market, but a lack of crypto-related words during the president’s inauguration speech put the crypto market under pressure again. On Tuesday, bitcoin fell to around USD 102,000.

German producer prices rise in December

Producer prices for industrial products in Germany increased by 0.8% in December 2024 compared to December 2023, according to data released by Destatis on Monday. Despite this year-on-year rise, prices fell by 0.1% from November 2024. For the whole of 2024, producer prices decreased by 1.8% on an annual average basis, mainly due to a significant drop in energy prices. Excluding energy, producer prices were up 1.2% year-on-year in December 2024.

European stock indices posted modest gains on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.3%, while Germany’s DAX advanced 0.4%. France’s CAC 40 was up 0.3%.

Swiss producer and import prices fall in 2024

The Swiss Federal Statistical Office reported on Monday that the Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in December at 106.3 points. Compared with December 2023, the price level fell by 0.9%. The average annual inflation rate for 2024 was -1.7%, driven by lower prices for pharmaceutical products and petroleum. Domestic producer prices decreased by 0.5%, while import prices dropped by 4.0%. The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) recent interest rate reductions, aimed at supporting economic growth, have contributed to a modest weakening of the Swiss franc against major currencies. This depreciation has slightly mitigated imported deflationary pressures but remains insufficient to counteract the broader trend of declining import prices. The Swiss Market Index gained 0.3% on Monday.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Charles Schwab, Netflix, and Prologis.

Economic data in focus: World Economic Forum in Davos (until Friday), UK unemployment rate (08:00), German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (11:00), Canadian Consumer Price Index (14:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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