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US, European economic activity diverge

The US and euro-area economies showed more signs of divergence to finish last week with their Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) moving in opposite directions. Both US and European stocks finished the week strong, while Asia stocks were mostly in positive territory to start the new week. The dollar slumped and Treasury yields fell across the curve on the announcement of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary in the incoming Donald Trump administration. Bessent is considered a more orthodox candidate for the role than some other potential candidates and is generally seen to be positive for markets.

Date
Auteur
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Temps de lecture
5 minutes

Mixed markets
© Shutterstock

This week, inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) data from several key economies will be in focus. On Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its meeting minutes, offering a glimpse into the Federal Reserve's (Fed) recent policy discussions and prospects for further interest rate cuts. On Wednesday, the US releases GDP figures and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Thursday, Germany reports its Consumer Price Index (CPI), providing insights into inflation trends in Europe’s largest economy. On Friday, Tokyo CPI is due, which is considered an indicator of national inflation, while in Europe, Switzerland reports its GDP data and the euro area releases CPI figures.

Aussie stocks hit record

Asia-Pacific markets mostly advanced on Monday, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 reaching a new high and closing 0.3% higher. Investors in the region are anticipating significant economic data releases this week, including China's industrial data and India's third-quarter GDP figures. On Monday, China's central bank kept its medium-term lending rate unchanged at 2%, aiming to stabilise the yuan amidst recent pressure following the election of Trump in the US. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.2% to start the week and mainland China’s CSI 300 declined 0.8%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1.1% higher, while Korea’s Kospi rose 1.4%.

US business activity accelerates

US Flash Composite PMI rose to 55.3 in November, marking a 31-month high. The services sector saw significant growth, with the Business Activity Index reaching 57.0, while manufacturing output declined to 46.3, the lowest in 23 months. Additionally, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 71.8 in November, up by 1.3 points from the previous month. Together, the data paint a moderately strong picture of US economic activity going into the holiday shopping season.

US equities reacted positively Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,296.51 points, up 1%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.4% to finish at 5969.3 points. The Nasdaq-100 added 0.2% to 20,776.23 points. Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 climbing 1.8%.

Euro-area business activity contracts

PMI data painted a different picture of the situation in Europe. Business activity in the euro area contracted in November, with Flash Composite PMI falling to 48.1, its lowest in ten months. The services sector joined manufacturing in contraction, with Services PMI dropping to 49.2, also a ten-month low. Manufacturing output fell to 45.1 points. This decline reflects reduced new orders and increased inflationary pressures, alongside a significant drop in business confidence. Germany, the euro area's largest economy, saw its Composite PMI fall to 47.3, a nine-month low, exacerbating the overall decline in euro-area business activity.

Markets ignored the data with the major European stock indices closing higher on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.7%, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.9% and France’s CAC 40 increased by 0.6%. The Swiss Market Index advanced 1.1%.

German GDP barely grows in third quarter

More fragile macroeconomic data came out of Germany to finish the week. The country’s GDP increased by just 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter, according to data released by Destatis on Friday. This modest growth follows a 0.3% decline in the second quarter and a 0.2% rise in the first quarter. Year-on-year, GDP was up just 0.1% after price adjustment but fell by 0.3% when adjusted for calendar effects. The German economy has been struggling to create growth for the last couple years as companies face high energy costs and difficult trade conditions.

UK retail sales decline amid budget concerns

Also released on Friday were UK retail sales, which fell 0.7% in October, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.3% decline. This decrease follows a 0.3% increase in September and reflects consumer hesitancy ahead of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' budget announcement on October 30. Despite a slight improvement in consumer confidence post-budget, economic growth remains subdued due to ongoing high interest rates and fiscal uncertainty.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Swiss employment figures (08:30), German ifo Business Climate Index (10:00), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (16:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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