The Strategist

When 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years become five minutes

Just before Christmas, Google caused a stir when the company unveiled a quantum computer with the new "Willow" chip and demonstrated its superiority over conventional computers. In less than five minutes, it performed a calculation that would take one of the fastest supercomputers ten septillion years - i.e. 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years - which far exceeds the age of the universe. This led to a hype in quantum computing shares, whose performance made Nvdia look like Intel.

Date
Auteur
Chris Burger, Senior Equity Analyst LGT
Temps de lecture
10 minutes

Quantum Computing
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Qubits can assume an infinite number of states

Classical supercomputers reach their limits when it comes to extremely complex calculations. While conventional computers process information in bits with two possible states (0 and 1), quantum computers are based on qubits that can assume superpositions with an infinite number of states (0, 1, everything in between and even more than one possibility at the same time). This allows more data to be processed simultaneously and drastically reduces the computing time for certain problems.

Various technologies

Several qubit technologies are currently being pursued. While each has its advantages, they also face different challenges. In addition to superconducting qubits - a technology based on circuits that become superconducting at extremely low temperatures, which is being pursued by Alphabet/Google, IBM, Rigetti, OQC, AWS/Amazon and DWave - these include ion traps (IonQ, Honeywell and AQT), photon-based qubits (Xanadu and PsiQuantum), quantum dots (Intel and SQC) and neutral atom qubits (Pasqal, Atom Computing and I QuEra). All have the potential to revolutionise the quantum computing landscape. Although superconducting qubits are currently making headlines, it is not yet clear which technology will ultimately prevail. Accordingly, investments, especially in start-ups, are associated with high risks.

Error-proneness as one of the biggest challenges

Quantum computers are inherently prone to failure. Short coherence times and noise cause qubits to lose their information, because their stability can easily be disrupted by external and internal influences such as radiation, noise, energy, etc. Superconducting qubits, for example, must be cooled to extremely low temperatures close to absolute zero of around -273°C. Reliable error correction is correspondingly difficult. Reliable error correction is therefore the decisive factor for the practical use of quantum computers.

Google was able to reduce error rates exponentially

Google's progress in error correction is therefore even more important than computing power. Until now, the fatal weakness was that the error rate increased with the number of qubits used. Google has now succeeded in combining several physical qubits into one logical qubit, which makes fewer errors than its components, thus reducing the error rate exponentially. As a result, the chip achieves greater computing stability, more scalability and more precise results, which brings the practical use of quantum computers in a real-world environment significantly closer.

Applications in areas where supercomputers reach their limits

A quantum computer is suitable for complex calculations such as optimisation tasks where traditional supercomputers reach their limits. Possible areas of application are

  • Industry and logistics: Optimisation problems such as route planning, supply chain optimisation or energy distribution could be significantly improved.
  • Research and medicine: Simulations of molecules and chemical processes could be massively accelerated, improving the development of new materials, drugs or vaccines, as well as diagnostic procedures.
  • Artificial intelligence: Patterns in large data sets could be recognised more quickly and more complex learning processes could be supported.
  • Cryptography and cybersecurity: Quantum computers make existing encryption methods vulnerable, but at the same time they also enable new quantum-safe security protocols.
  • Sustainability and climate change: Quantum computers enable more precise climate simulations and optimisation of energy and resource use.

However, we believe that quantum computers will not make everything faster. A quantum computer is not suitable for normal tasks such as using the internet, office work or email, but for some very complex calculations and optimisations that are currently beyond the capabilities of traditional computers. In the future, hybrid systems can be developed in which conventional high-performance classical computers are combined with quantum processors. Although the "Willow" quantum chip has brought us one step closer to real-world applications, it could take years before it is commercially viable. So we won't be finding quantum computers under our Christmas trees any time soon.

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