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Bank of England cuts rates as UK growth outlook dims

The Bank of England (BoE) reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday, marking the first cut of 2025, amid ongoing economic sluggishness. The pound dropped against major currencies following the rate announcement. European stocks rallied despite weak retail trade data, while mixed performances were observed in Asian and US markets. 

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

Pound Sterling
© Shutterstock

The Bank of England reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday, marking the first cut of 2025. The central bank also halved its growth forecast for the UK in 2025 from 1.5% to 0.75%, citing ongoing economic sluggishness. Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that further rate cuts are likely as the disinflation process continues. The decision follows weak economic data, including a flat third quarter and minimal gross domestic product growth in November. The pound dropped versus all major currencies following the interest rate announcement on Thursday.

Euro-area retail trade volume declines

European stock indices rallied on Thursday with the Euro Stoxx 50 raising 1.6% to 5355.55 points. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both climbed 1.5%. The Swiss Market Index increased by 0.3%. The stock market gains came despite retail trade data released by Eurostat on Thursday that showed trade volume in the euro area decreased by 0.2% in December 2024 compared to November 2024. This follows a period of stagnation in November. Annually, retail trade volume rose by 1.9%.

Asian trading mixed as India cuts rates, and Japan spending surges

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Friday as investors evaluated India's interest rate reduction and Japan's household spending data. The Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, the first reduction in nearly five years, due to cooling inflation. Meanwhile, Japan's household spending rose 2.7% year-on-year in December, significantly exceeding expectations and bolstering the case for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The yen hit its highest level versus the US dollar in two months. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.6% lower, while Korea’s Kospi fell 0.6%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was essentially flat, down 0.1%. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.7%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 0.8%.

US stocks continue slow recovery

US stock markets showed a mixed performance on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.3% to 44,747.63 points. In contrast, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 6083.57 points, and the Nasdaq-100, dominated by technology stocks, gained 0.5% to 21,774.07 points. Despite initial losses from high import tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, positive negotiations with Mexico and Canada and upcoming talks with China have supported a recovery the last few sessions. In individual stocks, Amazon's shares dropped 4.1% in extended trading on Thursday after reporting weaker-than-expected growth in its cloud unit, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and issuing a disappointing first-quarter sales forecast.

US jobless claims rise

US initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 219,000 for the week ending 1st February, indicating a softening labour market, according to data released on Thursday. Continuing claims, a proxy for hiring, rose by 36,000 to 1.886 million. Worker productivity grew at a 1.2% annualised rate in the fourth quarter, down from 2.3% in the previous quarter, while unit labour costs surged at a 3% rate, suggesting rising wage pressures. Market participants will scrutinize Friday’s nonfarm payroll data for a better understanding of the state of the US labour market.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Mazda und Vontobel.

Economic data in focus: German trade balance (08:00), German manufacturing production (08:00), Swiss SECO consumer sentiment (09:00), Canadian unemployment rate (14:30), US nonfarm payrolls (14:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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