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Chinese AI model triggers tech stock sell-off

Investors sold off technology stocks on Monday, leading to significant declines in shares of Nvidia and other AI-related equities, as fear surrounding the capabilities of China’s DeepSeek low-cost AI model set in. The Nasdaq-100 fell sharply, while safe-haven assets like US Treasuries rallied. European stocks were mostly down to start the week. Asian markets also reacted to the news, with Japanese chip stocks continuing to fall on Tuesday.

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

Computer Chip
© Shutterstock

Investors sold off technology stocks on Monday, causing significant declines in shares of Nvidia and other AI-related equities, after China's DeepSeek recently launched a low-cost AI model. DeepSeek's new AI assistant, which uses less data and costs a fraction of its Western counterparts, has raised concerns about the sustainability of large AI investments by US tech companies as well as the longevity of demand for AI chips and other infrastructure.

Market fear surges, AI-related stocks tumble

The CBOE Volatility Index, which acts as a gauge of market fear, shot up by more than 40% during Monday’s trading session. In New York, the Nasdaq-100 fell 3% to 21,127.28 points. Nvidia, which has become the poster child for the recent AI-driven stock rally, plummeted 17% on Monday, knocking off nearly USD 600 billion from the company’s market value. The losses at tech giants dragged down the broader market as well with the S&P 500 dropping 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, managed a gain of 0.7%. Investors shifted towards safe-haven assets, with US Treasuries rallying and yields dropping across the curve. Two-year yields were traded as low as 4.17% while the ten-year yield dropped below 4.49% on Monday.

The market will likely receive an update on Chinese competition, including DeepSeek, along with quarterly earnings releases from major tech companies in the coming weeks. ASML, Microsoft and Tesla report on Wednesday.

Japan chip stocks continue to fall

Shares in Japan's chip-related companies declined further on Tuesday on concerns over DeepSeek's AI capabilities. Semiconductor suppliers Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Renesas Electronics fell by over 11%, 5.7%, and 3.6% respectively. Softbank Group, owner of chip designer Arm, saw a 5.2% drop. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1.4% lower on Tuesday.

In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.3%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.1%. Markets in mainland China as well as South Korea were closed for a holiday on Tuesday.

German business sentiment improves slightly

The ifo Business Climate Index for Germany increased to 85.1 points in January from 84.7 points in December, driven by a more positive assessment of the current situation, according to data released on Monday. Despite this improvement, expectations deteriorated, with companies remaining generally pessimistic. The manufacturing sector saw a decline in business climate due to scepticism about future months, while the service sector experienced significant improvement in current business assessments. The trade sector's climate remained unchanged, and construction saw a worsening business climate driven by poorer expectations.

Improving business sentiment in Germany wasn’t enough to save European equity markets on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged down 0.6%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both posted losses of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. The Swiss Market Index was a notable exception, increasing by 1.2%.

Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML got caught up in the anti-AI sentiment on Monday, losing 7% during the week’s first trading session in Amsterdam.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Boeing, General Motors, Logitech, LVMH, SAP, Sartorius, and Stryker. Annual general meetings at Visa.

Economic data in focus: ECB Bank Lending Survey (10:00), US durable goods orders (14:30), Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (16:00), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (16:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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