The Strategist

German elections: can this cure the economic malaise?

As the world watches the transition of power in the United States and worries about import tariffs, Europe faces its own political changes. Germany heads to the polls on 23 February after its coalition government collapsed in November 2024. This election could be crucial for the country's economy. 

Data
Autore
Tina Jessop, Senior Economist, LGT Private Banking
Tempo di lettura
10 minuto

Parliament building Germany
© Shutterstock

After five years of economic stagnation (compared to 5% growth for the eurozone as a whole) and a dismal outlook for 2025 (the German Bundesbank is projecting 0.2% real GDP growth), private sector sentiment is in the doldrums and economic concerns are dominating the public discourse. Growth-enhancing measures and fiscal loosening could spark a moderate cyclical revival in 2025 and 2026.

The sick man of Europe in desperate need of a vitamin shot

Germany's economic issues are mostly structural, worsened by years of strict fiscal policies and policy mistakes, which have contributed to the recent de-industrialisation of the economy. Germany’s infrastructure is aging, there is a shortage of skilled labour in various sectors, it lags in digital infrastructure and technology adoption, and bureaucracy and red tape together with painful energy uncertainty hamper entrepreneurial spirits and competitiveness. The recession in the industrial sector (industrial output has fallen by 15% since 2017) and tepid private demand are exacerbating (and are partly driven by) structural weaknesses. 

This is prompting political parties to focus on economic revitalisation. Market expectations for policy progress are low, and there is no easy or fast solution to Germany’s structural problems. Yet, barring a France-like outcome where no coalition constellation achieves a parliamentary majority and political gridlock prevails, a new German administration could surprise with a growth-enhancing agenda. This could provide some cyclical relief in the second half of 2025 and into 2026.

The economic manifestos of the major parties

  • The CDU/CSU promises to cut income taxes, reduce the corporate tax rate to 25%, cut down on regulation, lower employee social security contributions, give more incentives for welfare recipients to work, remove the "citizen income" programme, tighten immigration controls, reduce energy prices and possibly bring back nuclear power.
  • The SPD aims to cut income taxes for low-income households, increase taxes on the wealthy, raise the minimum wage to EUR 15 by 2026, create a EUR 100 billion infrastructure fund, offer a 10% tax refund on German-made equipment investments, and speed up the green energy transition, while also lowering energy prices.
  • The Greens want to provide more investment subsidies, help low-income households pay for climate-related costs, reduce energy prices and partially fund these initiatives with a tax on the rich.
  • The Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) supports lowering taxes, leaving the EU and abolishing the euro. The AfD proposes closing the border to undocumented migrants and detaining asylum seekers at the border, increase fossil fuel energy generation, and to resume importing Russian natural gas.

The German Economic Institute (Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft) estimates that the tax proposals could free up EUR 30 billion under the SPD’s manifesto, EUR 48 billion under the Greens, EUR 89 billion under the CDU and EUR 149 billion under the AfD for the private sector. The CDS/CSU, SPD and the Greens also want to increase military spending to at least 2% of GDP and invest in infrastructure. 

Overshadowing the promise of increased spending and lower taxes is the "debt brake". Created in 2009 and enshrined in the German constitution, it limits the structural fiscal deficit to 0.35% of GDP. While admirable during normal times, Germany's comparably low debt-to-GDP ratio (which stands at ca. 60% compared to ca. 90% for the eurozone as a whole) and its accelerating structural demise warrant a loosening of rigid budget restrictions. A relaxation requires a two-thirds majority to change the constitution. The SPD and Greens are in favour of relaxing the debt brake, while the CDU/CSU has expressed concern and the AfD wants to retain it. 

Current polling: CDU/CSU in the lead but coalition needed to form a government

Current polling suggests a "grand coalition" between the conservative CDU/CSU (31% of votes according to the latest Forsa survey) and social democrats SPD (16%) or a "black-green" coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Greens (13%) are the most likely outcomes. A coalition between the CDU and the AfD (20% of votes) is unlikely, given the AfD’s controversial standing on various topics. The smaller parties, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), the FDP and the Left are all hovering around 4%, below the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag.

Political compromise holds the key to reversing economic course

The mid-term outlook for the German economy remains murky amidst structural challenges and rising competition from China. Policy mistakes have been made and will take years to rectify. Yet, from a purely cyclical perspective and given gloomy economic expectations, we see the upcoming election as an opportunity to create some modest, yet well needed, economic breathing room.

For the likely coalition constellation outcomes, we see ground for compromise in the areas of tax cuts, energy prices, and defense and infrastructure spending (fiscal expansion). This should support private demand. Deregulation and reduction of red tape (coupled with a lower ECB deposit rate) should help business sentiment and investment activity. The biggest risks to the German economy come from political stalemate and - closing the loop to the incoming US administration - tariff policies under Donald Trump. 

Contattateci