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Markets look ahead to central bank decisions after mixed PMI releases

Chinese stocks advanced on Monday despite contraction in the manufacturing sector, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 kicked off the week with losses due to concerns over Chinese AI competition. A solid Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) out of the US failed to lift US equity markets on Friday. European markets closed higher on Friday. This week, global markets will focus on interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday and the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday as well as a slew of fourth-quarter earnings data. 

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

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Market participants expect the Fed to hold rates steady amid concerns about reflation under the new Trump administration, while consensus is for a 25-basis-point cut at the ECB. In addition to central bank activities, key economic data releases include US gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter (Thursday) and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (Friday). Notable data points out of Europe are Germany's Consumer Price Index (Friday) and the euro area’s fourth-quarter GDP (Thursday).

Chinese stocks make gains despite weak macroeconomic data

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 1%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading 0.1% higher, despite macroeconomic data out of the world’s second-largest economy showing continued weakness. China's manufacturing activity contracted in January, with the official PMI dropping to 49.1 from 50.1 in December, marking its weakest performance since August, according to data released on Monday. This unexpected decline has renewed calls for economic stimulus, as the non-manufacturing PMI also slowed to 50.2 from 52.2. Despite achieving its 2024 growth target of around 5%, China's economy remains heavily reliant on exports, facing challenges from weak domestic demand and potential US tariffs. Policymakers are expected to focus on industrial upgrades and infrastructure in 2025, raising concerns about overcapacity and deflation. Meanwhile, China’s industrial profits fell by 3.3% in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of decline, according to data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Despite an 11% rise in December, annual earnings were impacted by weak domestic demand and a struggling property market.

Japan chip stocks decline amid DeepSeek concerns

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, markets in Australia and South Korea were closed for public holidays. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.8% lower as Japanese chip-related stocks fell on Monday due to concerns about Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's potential challenge to US dominance in artificial intelligence. Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Renesas Electronics stock were all trading in the red on Monday. The broader market impact included significant losses for Softbank Group and data centre-related shares, as investors rotated from growth to value stocks. The developments reflect fears that Japan's tech ambitions may lag China's rapid advancements in AI and semiconductor technology.

US stocks decline despite PMI growth

US stock markets closed lower on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.3% to 44,424.25 points, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropping 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Despite this, the Dow and Nasdaq indices posted weekly gains. Solid PMI data was insufficient to prop up markets on Friday with US Composite PMI falling to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December, marking a nine-month low. The services sector experienced slower growth, with its index dropping to 52.8, while the manufacturing sector saw a slight improvement, with its index rising to 50.2. Also released Friday was the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell to 71.1, missing market consensus and dropping from December's 74.0. This decline suggests potentially more cautious spending habits, which can significantly impact economic activity. Besides the Fed decision this week, traders will dissect a large range of fourth-quarter earnings from US companies.

Euro-area PMI shows modest growth

The euro zone's Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in January from 49.6 in December, indicating a modest return to growth, according to data released on Friday. Germany's private sector stabilised, ending a six-month contraction, while France's services sector continued to shrink due to weak demand and political uncertainty. The manufacturing downturn eased, with the PMI increasing to 46.1 from 45.1. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates amid ongoing political instability and trade tensions.

European stock indices were marginally higher on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.03%, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.04% and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.4%. The Swiss Market Index increased by 0.1%.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from AT&T.

Economic data in focus: German ifo Business Climate Index (10:00).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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