The Strategist

Preview of an exciting Q2 reporting season

The reporting season for the second quarter is always one of the most exciting of the year. In the first quarter, it is often still too early for companies to make any adjustments to their full-year outlook. With the second quarter, however, the question arises as to whether expectations regarding the full-year outlook have been met to such an extent that it can be confirmed or even raised, or whether shortfalls require a reduction in full-year expectations.

Data
Autore
Georg Ruzicka, Head Equity Research EMEA
Tempo di lettura
10 minuto
Q2
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With share price gains of around +17% in the leading global index S&P 500 in the current year, the market is sending clear signals as to what expectations are. Current expectations are based on sales growth of +4.6% and an increase in earnings per share of +8.8% compared to the previous year. If this earnings growth rate is achieved, it would be the strongest earnings growth in the S&P 500 since Q1 2022 (then +8.9%). Interestingly, the US economy cooled moderately over the course of the second quarter, while earnings growth expectations remained virtually unchanged. As at 31 March 2024, these were +9.1% for the reporting season now starting, i.e. only 30 basis points above current estimates, which occurs in less than 25% of quarters. Wall Street's usual game of revising expectations downwards shortly before the reporting season in order to have a better chance of surprising positively has failed to materialise this time. This suggests that analysts are more confident than average in their estimates. It should not be forgotten that the comparative basis in the previous year, i.e. Q2 2023, marked the low point of the US earnings recession with a decline in earnings of -5.7%. This should play a key role in creating a low basis for attractive year-on-year earnings growth now. With such a low prior-year base, missing profit expectations would be a clear disappointment. 

Broader-based profit growth expected

How broadly based profit growth will be in the second quarter is likely to provide further food for thought. In each of the past three quarters, the "Magnificent Seven" have achieved very solid earnings growth, while the S&P 493 without these stocks showed negative earnings growth. In the last quarter, this was still around -2% year-on-year for the S&P 493. As reporting season gets underway, earnings growth for the "Magnificent Seven" is likely to fall from around +50% in the previous quarter to an estimated +30% this quarter. However, the S&P 493 should achieve a turnaround and generate positive earnings growth of around +5%. Inevitably, the current starting position therefore offers plenty of scope for surprises in both directions. 

The realisation that high expectations can lead to asymmetrical market reactions already became apparent in the first quarter. Exceeding sales and profit expectations was rewarded with an average of +0.9%, while falling short of expectations was acknowledged with an average of -3.2%. After a performance of more than +44% this year, expectations for the "Magnificent Seven", the mainstays to date, are above average. The same applies to the broader US technology sector, which has gained over +32% in the course of the year. Here, the advance praise and higher valuation levels leave little room for disappointment. According to broker reports, options on the technology giants are also pricing in major reactions to the quarterly reports this quarter. The weighted, implied price movement on the trading day following the figures is currently estimated at an average of 4.5% for the technology giants. If this happens, it would be the most pronounced market reaction in 16 years. However, these expectations apply only marginally to the broad S&P 500. If the broadening out of earnings momentum materialises in the course of the reporting season, the previously neglected market segments could unleash their catch-up potential.

A look beyond the current reporting season

According to estimates, analysts currently expect year-on-year earnings growth of +8.1% in the third quarter, followed by an acceleration to +17.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This would result in profit growth of +11.2% for 2024 as a whole, largely driven by a stronger second half of the year. However, the fourth quarter is only expected to be the first of five consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth. The current consensus expectations for the first quarter of 2025 are for earnings growth of +15.2% and +15.6% for the second quarter. The reporting season for the second quarter of 2024 will therefore provide the first key indications as to whether expectations for the coming quarters can remain as they are or not. We wish you an exciting reporting season.

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