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SNB makes surprise jumbo rate cut

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) made an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut on Thursday. Concurrently, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its deposit rate by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations. The Swiss franc weakened while European stocks traded without a clear trend following the monetary policy announcements. US stocks declined on mixed labour market and inflation signals. Asian markets were mostly down on Friday as traders assessed the most recent news regarding stimulus measures from China.

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

SNB with Swiss flag
© Shutterstock

The SNB unexpectedly reduced its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 0.5% on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive rate cut this year. This significant reduction aims to mitigate further disinflation and the strength of the Swiss franc, which has been trading near all-time highs against the euro and the US dollar. The franc weakened immediately after the decision versus the euro and US dollar, while the SMI closed 0.3% higher on Thursday.

ECB lowers interest rates

The ECB cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3% on Thursday, in line with market expectations. This move comes amid a persistent recession in the euro-area manufacturing sector and a sluggish growth outlook. The ECB's updated forecast anticipates economic growth in the eurozone of 1.1% in 2025, down from the previous estimate of 1.3%, with inflation projected to average 2.1%. The Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.1% on Thursday, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.1%. France’s CAC 40 fell slightly by 0.03%

US stocks decline amid mixed economic signals

US stock markets fell on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.5% to 43,914.12 points, distancing itself further from last week's record high. The Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.7% to 21,615.27 points, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.5% to 6051.25 points. In individual company news, Adobe shares fell 13.7% on Thursday after the company issued a lower-than-expected full-year revenue forecast, raising concerns about delayed returns from its AI investments.

US initial jobless claims increased by 17,000 to 242,000 for the week ending 7 December, according to the Labor Department on Thursday. Market participants had forecast 220,000 claims. The data supports a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut next week. Meanwhile, US producer prices increased by 0.4% in November, driven largely by a surge in egg prices due to an avian flu outbreak. Despite this, a moderate rise in services costs, such as portfolio management fees and airline fares, suggests that the overall disinflationary trend remains intact.

China’s fiscal and monetary plans insufficient to buoy market

China's annual economic work conference concluded on Thursday, reaffirming plans to increase the fiscal deficit and adopt a "moderately loose" monetary policy in 2025. Led by President Xi Jinping, the meeting emphasised proactive fiscal measures and interest rate cuts to bolster the ailing economy. This policy shift follows recent stimulus efforts, including a substantial five-year package to address local government debt. Despite these measures, persistent deflationary pressures remain, with consumer inflation at a five-month low in November and producer prices declining for the 26th consecutive month. The Chinese measures appeared too weak to support markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.6% and mainland China’s CSI 300 declined 1.7%.

Japanese business sentiment improves

Business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers strengthened in the quarter ended December, with the Bank of Japan’s Tankan index rising to 14 from 13 in the September quarter, surpassing economists' expectations of 12. The index for large non-manufacturers remained steady at 33, slightly down from 34 in the previous quarter but still above the anticipated 32.

Markets were largely unimpressed with the data. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1%, while Korea’s Kospi was trading 0.3% higher. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.4% lower.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German trade balance (08:00), UK gross domestic product (08:00), French Consumer Price Index (08:45).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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