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Solid US jobs report fuels interest rate concerns and yields rally

Stocks tumbled at the end of last week as Treasury yields spiked on a stronger-than-expected US labour market report that lowered the probability of interest rate cuts by the Fed in March. Asia-Pacific markets trade lower on Monday. This week, markets will closely monitor key earnings releases, as company earnings from major players, including Microsoft and Tesla, will be scrutinised for signs of economic resilience. On Wednesday, the US and UK will release their consumer price inflation data, providing insights into the inflation trajectory. Market participants will also pay attention to speeches from Federal Reserve members throughout the week, seeking clues on future monetary policy directions.

Date
Auteur
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Temps de lecture
5 minutes

Yields
© Shutterstock

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were trading lower on Monday, weighed down by concerns over US interest rate policy. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.1%, while Korea’s Kospi lost 1.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.2% to close at 8,191.9 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 1.3% and mainland China’s CSI 300 was down 0.7%. Gold prices remained stable, trading around USD 1850 per ounce. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2-year yield at 4.6% and the 10-year yield at 4.3%. Brent crude oil futures climbed 1.8% to USD 81.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures advanced 1.9% to USD 78.02 per barrel. Bitcoin was trading slightly higher around USD 93,000.

China’s exports and imports exceed expectations

China’s trade data for December surpassed expectations, with exports increasing by 10.7% and imports rising by 1% year-on-year, as reported by the customs authority on Monday. This growth contrasts with November's figures, where exports grew by 6.7% and imports fell by 3.9%. Analysts attribute the robust export performance to frontloaded shipments amid concerns over potential tariff hikes, while imports were bolstered by stronger demand for industrial commodities. Despite the positive short-term outlook, experts warn that potential tariff increases could hinder export momentum throughout the year.

Wall Street under pressure on strong jobs growth and climbing Treasury yields 

New York stock markets experienced significant losses on Friday as a robust jobs report cast doubt on further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped some 696 points, or 1.6%, to 41,938.45. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also declined by 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively, pushing major indexes into negative territory for 2025. US government yields remained close to their highest levels since November 2023 on Friday. The ten-year Treasury yield rose as high as 4.78% (current 4.76), while the two-year US government bond yield stands at 4.38%.

US jobs report exceeds expectations 

US nonfarm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December, surpassing the 155,000 forecast and the 212,000 added in November, according to data released on Friday. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while an alternative measure of joblessness dropped to 7.5%, the lowest since June 2024. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month, with a 3.9% annual increase, indicating wage inflation is moderating. The robust job growth, particularly in health care, leisure and hospitality, and government sectors, may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

US consumer confidence deteriorated in December

US consumer sentiment deteriorated in December due to rising inflation concerns, as reported by the University of Michigan on Friday. The consumer sentiment index fell by 0.8 points to 73.2 points from the previous month, contrary to economists' expectations of an unchanged 74.0 points. This decline follows five consecutive months of improvement. Short-term inflation expectations rose to 3.3% from 2.8% in November, while long-term expectations increased to 3.3%, the highest since 2008. The survey highlighted that nearly one-third of consumers mentioned tariffs, attributing higher prices to tariff increases announced by President-elect Donald Trump.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: US monthly budget statement (19:00).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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