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China's economic growth meets target, but markets remain cautious ahead of Trump inauguration

China's economy met the government's growth target last year, but concerns about imbalances in the world’s second-largest economy and a US policy shift following Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president next week pressured markets. Asian markets reacted only mildly to the largely positive Chinese macroeconomic data, with Chinese stocks seeing modest gains, while broader regional indices were mostly lower. Meanwhile, US stocks slipped on Thursday after solid gains during the previous session, and strong earnings from US banks failed to lift market sentiment. European equity markets performed well on Thursday.

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

China port
© Shutterstock

China's economy grew by 5% in 2024, aligning with the government's target, driven primarily by industrial output and exports. In December, retail sales rose by 3.7% and industrial output expanded by 6.2%, indicating a rebound in economic activity. However, domestic consumption lagged, and the unemployment rate increased, highlighting economic imbalances. China’s outlook for 2025 remains uncertain due to potential US tariff hikes under Trump. China’s continued reliance on industrial stimulus could exacerbate overcapacity, and deflationary pressures are also concerning for market participants.

Friday’s data dump gave Chinese stocks a mild boost, while most Asian equity indices remained in the red. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.3%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 gained 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.5%, and Korea’s Kospi fell 0.2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.2% lower.

US stocks slip after strong gains

US stock markets saw a slight decline on Thursday following significant gains the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.2% to 43,153.13 points, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7% to 21,091.25 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.2% to 5937.34 points. The losses came despite data that showed US consumer spending remained robust through the end of the year. US retail sales increased by 0.4% in December, following an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in November, according to the US Census Bureau on Thursday. The solid growth highlights robust consumer demand and supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts.

US bank earnings continue to surpass expectations

Earnings at US banks continued to outpace market expectations as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America reported strong fourth-quarter results on Thursday. Morgan Stanley's profit more than doubled to USD 3.71 billion, driven by a 51% surge in equities trading revenue, while Bank of America saw its profit more than double to USD 6.67 billion, bolstered by a 44% increase in investment banking fees. These results follow positive earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo earlier this week, indicating robust performance across the financial sector. The benchmark KBW Bank Index nevertheless followed the larger stock indices down on Thursday, losing 0.2%. Morgan Stanley shares gained 4%, while Bank of America lost 1% following the release of earnings data.

German inflation slows to 2.2% in 2024

Germany's annual average inflation rate decreased to 2.2% in 2024, down significantly from 5.9% in 2023 and 6.9% in 2022, according to data released by the Federal Statistical Office on Thursday. In December 2024, consumer prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year, marking an increase from November's 2.2% and the third month of acceleration in a row. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 3% for the year, while service prices saw a notable rise of 3.8%. Sticky inflation in Europe’s largest economy had been a headache for the European Central Bank until roughly the middle of 2024 as the central bank was careful to not lower interest rates too quickly with inflation in many euro-area countries still ahead of its 2% target.

European stock indices performed strongly on Thursday. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.4%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.4% and 2.1%, respectively. The Swiss Market Index increased by 1.3%.

UK GDP growth raises rate cut expectations

UK GDP grew by a modest 0.1% in November, according to data released by the Office of National Statistics on Thursday. This follows a 0.1% decline in October and September, fuelling expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates at its next meeting in February. The slight economic growth was primarily driven by the services sector, but overall GDP showed no growth in the three months to November. Recent inflation data, which showed a lower-than-expected increase of 2.5% in December, further supports the case for a rate cut.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: UK retail sales (08:00), euro-area Consumer Price Index (11:00), US building permits and housing starts (14:30), US industrial production (15:15).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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