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Global equities declined late in the week as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious rate-cutting path for next year weighed on investor sentiment. The Dow Jones managed to end its ten-day losing streak on Thursday, but tech stocks tumbled. European markets saw significant declines on Thursday and...

US stocks plunged on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts for 2025. This shift led to a significant rise in Treasury yields, which triggered a broad sell-off in equities. Asian markets followed suit, trading lower on Thursday. The euro...

US equity markets closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones marking its ninth consecutive loss, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut on Wednesday. Robust retail sales data suggested a resilient US consumer, dampening hopes for aggressive...

European markets opened lower at the start of this week, with France's CAC 40 index dropping 0.7% due to Moody's unexpected downgrade of France's credit rating to Aa3. However, the focus this week is the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve is widely...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to reduce interest rates by 0.25% at its meeting on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive cut since September, bringing the Fed funds rate down to a range of 4.25-4.50%. Investors will also take a close look at PMIs from US, eurozone and UK today and the...

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) made an unexpected 50 basis point rate cut on Thursday. Concurrently, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its deposit rate by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations. The franc weakened while European stocks traded mixed after the monetary policy...

US technology stocks rallied on Wednesday following the release of inflation data, with the Nasdaq-100 reaching a record high. Despite consumer prices increasing at the fastest pace in seven months, the Federal Reserve is expected to proceed with a rate cut next week. Asian markets followed...

Markets are bracing for the release of US inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision next week. The market expects core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November will not exceed 0.3%, a level unlikely to disrupt current market expectations for a rate...

China’s imports fell sharply in November, sparking concerns about the nation’s economic outlook. Nevertheless, Asian markets found support as Beijing announced plans to loosen its monetary policy in 2025 to stimulate growth. US stocks retreated after a record week with Nvidia hit by a new probe...

This week, monetary policy decisions of major central banks and inflation data will be in the spotlight. The European Central Bank (Thursday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), Bank of Canada (Wednesday), and Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) all announce their latest interest-rate decisions.

We maintain our pro-cyclical stance in the run-up to 2025 and leave our tactical positioning unchanged. Our economic forecast remains steady, but the incoming Trump administration introduces an element of uncertainty. We favour US equities for earnings growth and see catch-up potential in...

"Trumponomics 2.0" has been the dominant theme in capital markets since Trump’s election victory. In his second term, the administration is likely to focus on tax cuts, spending cuts and trade protectionism. In the short term, these measures could boost investment, consumption and the labour...

We maintain our risk-on positioning and confirm our tactical "Overweight" in global equity, with a focus on US equity markets. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the US elections, we reduce the magnitude of the US equity "Overweight". In fixed income, we increase the duration of US...

The US economy remains stable with solid consumption, and the Federal Reserve has begun a rate-cutting cycle to support growth. While we maintain our US equities "Overweight", we introduce an "Underweight" in Japanese equities. Fixed income stays "Underweight", but we see value in government...

The sharp rise in equity volatility at the beginning of August proved to be a correction. We shift US equities to "Overweight", while fixed income remains “Underweight“, and we are taking profits in gold. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September, easing market headwinds and...

With the overall picture remaining constructive, we maintain our "Overweight" in equities and "Underweight" in fixed income. Fundamentally, stronger electricity demand growth, low valuations and the prospect of an interest rate turnaround offer attractive entry points in the utilities sector...

The solid but slowing growth environment should continue for the time being, albeit with regional differences, and the risk of recession seems to have been pushed further out. The equity market offers a more attractive risk/reward profile than the credit market, with the US stock market in...

Geopolitical tensions, robust US growth, rising oil prices and stubborn inflation are pushing equity and bond markets into negative territory for 2024. We are temporarily downgrading US equities to "Underweight" and reducing our preference for ILS investments to "Underweight".

The current economic and financial market environment is highly uncertain, with ge­opolitics, central banks and elections all making the next few months difficult to navigate. In this House View’s main article, we take a break from the day-to-day market environment and instead focus on our...

In this month's House View, we review some of our "Outlook 2024" forecasts and take a look at the latest developments in the financial markets. In our Macro article, we discuss the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector in recent years, highlight the factors behind this development and...

The third quarter earnings season is winding down. Here's a summary of the key takeaways.

In a week, the citizens of the USA will once again decide who will lead the country for the next four years. After President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal as the Democratic candidate in July, Kamala Harris brought new momentum to the race for the White House. With her, a woman could hold...

Polls on the US election continue to show a close race. What consequences would a Trump or Harris victory have for the global economy? Donald Trump's proposed tariff policy aims to strengthen American manufacturing by imposing high import tariffs, particularly on Chinese goods, which could...

In the second half of 2024, key economic trends emerged, shaping the global economic outlook. Disinflation returned on both sides of the Atlantic, the US labour market cooled further with slower job creation and falling wage inflation, and central banks began gradually easing their previously...

French bonds are once again in the spotlight and, for the first time since 2007, are perceived by the market as riskier than Spanish government bonds - despite Spain having a credit rating three notches lower. Simultaneously, the interest rate spread over German bonds has widened from around 50...

On September 24, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng announced an extensive monetary easing package, including rate cuts, RRR reductions, and mortgage policy relaxations, surpassing market expectations. Immediate market reactions saw a surge in stock markets, bond rallies, and...

As the world's most competitive economy to date, the European Union has a problem: its main competitors, China and the US, no longer want to play the game. In his report "The future of European competitiveness", Mario Draghi, a grandee of EU politics who, as former head of the European Central...

September often brings increased volatility to equity markets, and this year is no different with several significant events poised to influence capital markets. Critical labour market data in the US and the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the US Federal Reserve...

At the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled potential US interest rate cuts, citing a cooling labour market and easing inflation. Powell’s remarks highlight a shift towards a more flexible, "data-dependent" policy approach. With the Fed’s...

2024 continues the alarming trend of record-breaking global temperatures, surpassing previous highs set just last year. With July 22 marking the hottest day ever recorded, the persistent rise in temperatures underscores the urgent need for climate action. As extreme weather events become more...