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Trump's second term and Davos forum to steer markets

Global markets are set to focus on political and economic developments this week as Donald Trump is sworn in for his second term as US president on Monday. His anticipated new economic policies are expected to be a key topic at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, where global leaders and executives will gather throughout the week. Meanwhile, Asian markets started the week on a positive note, with Chinese stocks rising after the People's Bank of China kept its lending rates unchanged to support the yuan. US and European equities ended last week on a strong note. Over the weekend, Hamas and Israel began trading hostages and prisoners as part of a truce deal that foresees more swaps over the coming six weeks.

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

Trump

This week, all eyes will be on the incoming US president. Donald Trump will be sworn in on Monday for his second term as the leader of the world’s largest economy and is expected to announce a slew of new policies immediately following his inauguration. The WEF in Davos will also dominate headlines as global leaders and executives convene to discuss pressing economic issues all week, with Trump’s new policies likely at the top of the agenda. In macroeconomic data, the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision on Friday. Key inflation data will be released from Germany (Producer Price Index) on Monday and Canada (Consumer Price Index) on Tuesday. Purchasing Managers' Indices are due from several of Europe’s largest economies and the US on Friday.

China holds lending rates amid yuan concerns

China’s central bank maintained its benchmark lending rates on Monday, with the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%, as it addresses the weakening yuan. The People's Bank of China has intensified measures to prevent excessive currency volatility, emphasising foreign exchange stability. The decision follows unexpected rate cuts in July and a 25-basis-point reduction in October. Further rate cuts this year will likely depend on external monetary conditions, particularly actions by the US Federal Reserve. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 1.9%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading 0.5% higher on Monday. Stocks elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1.2% higher, while Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.5%.

US stocks rally ahead of Trump inauguration

US stocks surged on Friday ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration. The S&P 500 rose 1% to 5996.66 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8% to 43,487.83 points. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed, gaining 1.7% to 21,441.16 points. Notable performers included Intel, which jumped 9.3% on acquisition rumours.

Eurozone inflation rises to 2.4%

Eurozone annual inflation increased to 2.4% in December 2024 from 2.2% in November, according to Eurostat data released on Friday. A year earlier, the rate was 2.9%. In the European Union, annual inflation rose to 2.7% in December from 2.5% in November, down from 3.4% a year ago. Services contributed the most to the eurozone inflation rate, followed by food, alcohol & tobacco, non-energy industrial goods, and energy. Despite the increasing inflation rate in December, European stock indices ended the week on a positive note. The Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 0.8%, while Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 gained 1.2% and 1%, respectively. The Swiss Market Index increased by 0.4%.

UK retail sales decline in December

UK retail sales fell by 0.3% in December, defying expectations of a 0.4% increase, according to data released on Friday. This unexpected drop follows a revised 0.1% rise in November and raises concerns of a potential economic contraction in the fourth quarter. The news prompted a decline in sterling and gilt yields, as markets speculated on a possible Bank of England rate cut next month.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: World Economic Forum in Davos (until Friday), German Producer Price Index (08:00), Swiss Producer and Import Price Index (08:30), Bundesbank monthly report (12:00), Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (16:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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