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Trump victory sparks stock market rally

US stocks surged mid-week with the major US indices hitting all-time highs as it appeared likely that the Republican party would win not only the White House, but also a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives. Small-cap stocks and banks were among the major winners. The euphoria could only partially spill over to Asian markets, where trading was mixed. Meanwhile, bitcoin rallied to new highs and Treasury yields stabilised.

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

NYSE
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As of Thursday morning, Donald Trump was the clear winner in the presidential election while the Republican party gained a majority of seats in the Senate. The House of Representatives was still up for grabs, but Republicans were likely to achieve a majority there as well with news agency AP reporting 206 seats for Republics, 191 for Democratics and 38 yet to be called. A total of 218 are needed to secure a majority in the House. A Republican sweep - a scenario in which the Republicans control the White House, Senate and House of Representatives - would likely facilitate the execution of Donald Trump’s proposed policies and lead to increased spending.

Broad market rally

US stocks surged on Wednesday as the election results were becoming clear with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices all hitting fresh all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 43,729.93 points, up 3.6%, while the S&P 500 rose 2.5% to finish at 5929.04 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 gained 2.7%, ending the session at 20,781.33 points. Small caps also performed exceptionally well, with the Russell 2000 jumping 5.8%, while the benchmark KBW Bank Index saw a significant rise, climbing 10.7% as potential deregulation under a Trump administration is considered positive for the financial sector.

The US Dollar Index was roughly flat on Thursday after spiking a day earlier, while bitcoin, which Donald Trump supported during his 2024 election campaign, hit new highs and was trading near USD 75,000. Treasury yields stabilised with the two-year yield at 4.26% and ten-year yield at 4.43%.

Asian stocks show mixed performance

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed on Thursday with Chinse stocks leading gains. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 1.4%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 2.4%. The large moves come after China's exports surged by 12.7% year-on-year in October, significantly surpassing analysts' expectations. That marks the highest export growth in 19 months. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading essentially flat, down just 0.1%, even as the yen slipped briefly to a three-month intraday low of more than 154 versus the US dollar. It was trading near 140 just in September. Korea’s Kospi edged up 0.1%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased 0.3%.

German coalition collapses, snap election expected

Germany's ruling coalition disintegrated on Wednesday as Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner over fiscal disputes, paving the way for a snap election. Scholz is anticipated to lead a minority government with the Social Democrats and Greens, relying on ad-hoc parliamentary majorities. A confidence vote scheduled for mid-January could trigger elections by March. Germany’s DAX fell by 1.1% on Wednesday, closing at 19,039.31 points.

In macroeconomic data, German factory orders rose by 4.2% in September, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 1.5%, according to data released on Wednesday. The increase, driven by bulk orders and a notable rise in vehicle manufacturing, suggests a potential end to the industrial sector's prolonged weakness. Also positive for Europe’s largest economy was the HCOB Germany Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released Wednesday, which rose to 51.6 in October from 50.6 in September, marking a three-month high.

Euro-area economic activity stagnates

The HCOB Composite PMI for the euro area reached 50.0 points in October, indicating stagnation compared to September's 49.6. This stagnation was driven by economic contractions in Germany and France, which offset growth in other countries. The services sector continued its expansion, with the HCOB Services PMI rising to 51.6 from 51.4 in September, while the manufacturing sector saw significant declines.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Airbnb, Daimler Truck, Heidelberg Materials, Munich Re, and Rheinmetall.

Economic data in focus: German industrial production and trade balance, Swedish Riksbank interest and Norges Bank interest rate decisions, euro-area retail sales, Bank of England key rate decision, US weekly initial jobless claims, and Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement.

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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