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Central bank decisions and inflation data dominate this week

This week, monetary policy decisions of major central banks and inflation data will be in the spotlight. The European Central Bank (Thursday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), Bank of Canada (Wednesday), and Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday) all announce their latest interest-rate decisions. In the following week, all eyes will then be on the Federal Reserve’s last monetary policy announcement this year on 18 December - investors anticipate another rate cut. Inflation figures will also be closely watched, with the US releasing consumer price data on Wednesday and US producer prices on Thursday. Germany, France, and Spain will also publish their consumer price indices on Friday, providing further insight into inflation trends across the eurozone.

Data
Autore
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

Zinsen

In the Asian-Pacific region, stock markets declined at the start of the week, driven by a significant drop in South Korean stocks due to political instability. South Korea's Kospi falls 2.5% on Monday as political turmoil ensued after President Yoon Suk Yeol survived an impeachment vote over the weekend. The Kosdaq also fell by more than 4%. Elsewhere in Asia, markets were mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declining 0.5% and China's CSI 300 declining 0.5%. China's consumer inflation dropped to a five-month low in November, with the consumer price index rising by 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.3% in October, according to data released on Monday. The decrease was driven by a 2.7% decline in food prices due to favourable weather. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, edged up to 0.3% from 0.2% in October. Meanwhile, the producer price index fell by 2.5% year-on-year, a slower decline than October's 2.9%. 

US employment growth slightly stronger than expected

Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 227,000 in November, surpassing the market consensus of 214,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This follows an upwardly revised 36,000 in October, reflecting recovery from a significant labour strike and severe storms in the Southeast. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, aligning with forecasts, as labour force participation declined.

US consumer sentiment improves 

US consumer climate, measured by the University of Michigan, increased by 2.2 points to 74.0 points in December, reaching its highest level since April, according to data released on Friday. The improvement exceeded economists' expectations of 73.2 points. While consumers' expectations for the future declined, the overall index was bolstered by a significantly better assessment of the current situation. One-year inflation expectations rose to 2.9%, while longer-term expectations fell slightly to 3.1%. The sentiment index remains influenced by the US presidential election results, with Republican confidence at a four-year high and Democratic confidence at its lowest in over two years.

Sentiment on Wall Street remained positive at the end of last week as the S&P 500 reached another record high on Friday. The S&P 500 rose nearly 0.3% to a record 6090.27 points, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also hitting a new peak, climbing 0.8% to 19,859.77, driven by better-than-expected November jobs data and the outlook on more monetary policy easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average to the contrary fell 0.3% to 44,642.52.

European stocks rise amid French political turmoil

European markets edged higher on Friday as investors assessed recent political developments in France. The Stoxx 600 gained 0.2%, with France's CAC 40 up 1.4% despite Prime Minister Michel Barnier's resignation following a no-confidence vote. President Emmanuel Macron remains determined to complete his term, which ends in 2027.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: Sentix investor confidence for the eurozone (09:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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