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China’s stimulus-driven stock rally comes to a halt

Chinese stocks surged on Tuesday as mainland markets reopened after a week-long holiday, driven by optimism over recent government stimulus measures, while stocks in Hong Kong fell sharply. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices posted significant gains, reaching multi-year highs. Nevertheless, the drop in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which reopened for trading in the middle of last week, suggested the rally has come to an end in the region. US markets closed lower on Monday amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a decline in tech stocks, while oil retreated after strong gains last week.

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

Market
© Shutterstock

Chinese shares surged to two-year highs on Tuesday as mainland markets reopened after a week-long holiday. The CSI 300 index jumped 10% at the open and were trading 4.6% higher late in the session. while the Shanghai Composite was trading nearly 4% higher, reaching its highest level since the end of 2021. The rally was driven by optimism surrounding recent government stimulus measures aimed at stabilising the economy, benefiting sectors like industrial metals, semi-conductors, and construction. In contrast, Hong Kong shares, which have been open for trading for several days, plummeted on Tuesday, suggesting the stimulus-based rally had finally come to an end. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 6.8%.

Japan's real wages and consumption decline

Japan's inflation-adjusted wages fell by 0.6% in August compared to the same month last year, following a 0.3% rise in July. Household spending also declined by 1.9% year-on-year in August, though it rose 2% from July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Despite these declines, underlying trends indicate a gradual recovery in wages and consumption, supporting the Bank of Japan's plans for further rate hikes. The central bank noted that rising prices and wages are spreading across Japan, although small and medium-sized enterprises are concerned about profit pressures.

Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region outside of mainland China were mostly lower on Tuesday, following Wall Street's decline a day earlier. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1.3% lower, and Korea’s Kospi fell 0.5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.4%.

US markets decline amid geopolitical concerns

US stock markets declined on Monday, extending early losses throughout the session and erasing gains from Friday's strong September labour market report. Concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, where fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified, as well as weakness in the technology sector weighed on markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,954.24 points, down 0.9%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1% to finish at 5695.94 points. The Nasdaq-100 declined 1.2% to 19,800.74 points, as technology stocks led the broader market lower. Investors are now awaiting key inflation data, due on Thursday and Friday, which could influence the timing and extent of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Oil retreats despite Middle East escalation

Oil prices dropped by over USD 1 per barrel on Tuesday as traders took profits following a sharp rally. Brent crude oil futures dropped 1.6% to USD 79.67 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 1.6% at USD 75.91 per barrel. This decline followed a 3% increase on Monday and an 8% rise last week, driven by concerns over potential disruptions from escalating conflict in the Middle East. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, the market anticipates limited actual disruption to oil supplies, particularly given the ability of OPEC+ countries to ramp up capacity.

German manufacturing orders decline in August

New orders in German manufacturing fell by 5.8% in August 2024 compared to the previous month, following a 3.9% increase in July. Excluding large-scale orders, the decline was 3.4%. Year-on-year, orders dropped 3.9% from August 2023. The decline is attributed to a high volume of large orders in July, particularly in the transport equipment sector. Additionally, domestic orders decreased by 10.9%, while non-euro area orders rose by 3.4%. In recent months, macroeconomic data in Europe’s largest economy has been deteriorating with German Manufacturing PMI falling to 40.6 in September from 42.4 in August, marking a 12-month low. The STOXX Europe 600 edged up 0.2% on Monday, while Germany’s DAX slipped 0.1%.

Euro-area retail trade increases in August

The volume of retail trade in the euro area rose by 0.2% in August 2024 compared to July 2024, following a stable performance in July. In the European Union, retail trade volume increased by 0.3% in August, up from a 0.1% rise in July. Year-on-year, retail trade grew by 0.8% in the euro area and by 1% in the EU. The growth was driven by increases in non-food products and automotive fuel, while food, drinks, and tobacco saw a slight decrease in the euro area. The retail sales increase is a bright spot on an otherwise gloomy macroeconomic backdrop in Europe, with data released last week showing the euro-area Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 49.6 in September from August's 51.0, marking the first contraction since February.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Pepsi. Annual general meeting at Procter & Gamble.

Economic data in focus: German industrial production (08:00), US trade balance (14:30), Canadian trade balance (14:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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