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ECB cuts rates amid weak economy

The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its deposit rate to 2.5% on Thursday, reflecting slowing inflation and weak economic growth. European stocks were mixed, with a spike in bond yields impacting markets, while US tech stocks plunged on rising borrowing costs. In Asia, equities fell as China's trade data disappointed, highlighting the impact of the renewed trade war with the US. Gold was largely stable around USD 2910 per ounce, while cryptocurrencies came under pressure following the announcement of a US strategic cryptocurrency reserve that fell short of the market’s expectations. In other central banking news, the Turkish central bank reduced its policy rate from 45% to 42.5% on Thursday, citing a decrease in the underlying trend of inflation in February.

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

ECB sign at night
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The ECB reduced its deposit rate to 2.5% on Thursday, marking its sixth rate cut since June. The decision reflects ongoing concerns over slowing inflation and weak economic growth, despite recent policy changes aimed at boosting defence and infrastructure spending. The ECB also revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.9% and raised its inflation projection for this year to 2.3%. ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that further rate cuts remain possible, contingent on future economic data.

European stocks mixed as bonds sell off

European stock indices were mixed on Thursday, with most markets dragged down by a spike in government borrowing costs. German bond yields experienced their largest daily rise since 1990 on Wednesday. This surge followed Germany's proposed fiscal reforms to boost defence spending. Despite initial highs, German bond yields and other European yields later eased. In equities, the Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.2%, while Germany’s DAX again led gains, surging 1.5% on Thursday.

Asian stocks fall as China's imports drop amid trade war

China's imports declined by 8.4% year-on-year over January-February, while exports grew only 2.3%, missing expectations, according to data released on Friday. The renewed US-China trade war, marked by increased tariffs from the US and retaliatory measures from China, has impacted trade flows. Chinese policymakers are focusing on boosting domestic consumption amid a complex global trade environment, but the support didn’t trickle through to equity markets on Friday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.3%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 was trading 0.2% lower. Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 2.2% lower, after Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit its highest level since 2008. Korea’s Kospi fell 0.4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down by 1.8%.

US tech stocks plunge

US tech stocks fell sharply on Thursday due to rising bond yields, which diminish the value of future profits. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.8% to 20,052.64 points, continuing its recent decline and testing its 200-day average line. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% to 5738.52 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial decreased by 1% to 42,579.08 points. Concerns over AI competition from China and US trade tensions also weighed on the market, despite US President Donald Trump suspending the 25% tariffs imposed earlier this week on most goods from Canada and Mexico. The exemptions, which will last until April 2, aim to provide temporary relief amidst fluctuating trade policies.

US trade deficit hits record high

The US trade deficit surged 34% to a record USD 131.4 billion in January, driven by a 10% increase in imports, particularly industrial supplies and consumer goods, amid tariff concerns. This follows a revised USD 98.1 billion deficit in December. On the labour market, the US Labor Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 221,000 for the week ending March 1st, suggesting labour market stability. However, planned layoffs soared to 172,017 in February, driven by the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) actions, marking the highest level since the last two recessions.

Swiss unemployment rate declines in February

The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) reported on Thursday that Switzerland's unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% in February 2025, with the number of unemployed individuals falling by 327 to 135,446. Despite this monthly decline, unemployment rose by 21.1% compared to February 2024. The youth unemployment rate also dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%, while the number of job seekers remained stable at 212,699. The SMI shed 0.4% on Thursday.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Flughafen Zurich. Annual general meeting at Novartis.

Economic data in focus: Swiss foreign currency reserves (09:00), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks (10:30), euro-area gross domestic product (11:00), US nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings (14:30), Canadian unemployment rate (14:30), Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks (18:30).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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