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Harris-Trump TV duel: no clear victory, but Harris seems to have the advantage

In the first televised duel between the two US presidential candidates Harris and Trump, the two opponents exchanged blows as expected. Today, the focus is on the latest data on consumer price trends in the US. In the run-up to the Fed's expected interest rate turnaround next week, this could be decisive in terms of the extent to which interest rates are eased. Meanwhile, the inflation rate in Germany slipped below the 2% mark for the first time in three years.

Data
Autore
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

Harris Trump TV_Debate
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Kamala Harris and Donald Trump engaged in a heated exchange of blows in their first TV duel around two months before the US election. In Philadelphia, they accused each other of having no plan for the pressing problems and of spreading lies. Harris was certainly superior in terms of content, but Trump parried the attacks with his usual style. Trump defended his recent promise to increase trade tariffs, including across-the-board tariffs of 10% or 20% and additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on China. Harris countered that Trump has sold the US out to China and Trump's tenure has resulted in one of the highest trade deficits in American history. Overall, it is fair to say that the debate went roughly as expected and it is difficult to identify a "winner" or whether the duel will have a direct impact on the outcome of the election. So far, the two presidential candidates have also not agreed on a second debate, which means that this event may have been their only meeting before election day.

US inflation data in the spotlight

Investors on Wall Street held back ahead of today's US inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial closed around 0.2% lower at 40,736.96 points, while the S&P 500 posted a daily gain of just under 0.5% and closed at 5495.52 points. On the Nasdaq, technology stocks benefited from good news from Oracle. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.9% and ended the day at 18,829.14 points. Oracle surprised with a cooperation with the Amazon subsidiary AWS. In future, Oracle databases will increasingly run on the market leader's cloud platform. As a result, Oracle shares gained more than 11% and reached a record high. In contrast, Apple shares fell after the iPhone manufacturer suffered a defeat at the European Court of Justice and will have to pay billions in back taxes as a result.

Consumer price data from the US is now eagerly awaited. These could shed light on the extent of the Fed's anticipated interest rate easing next week. On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasuries fell to 3.64%.

Asia-Pacific markets decline amid mixed economic data from Japan and South Korea

The markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell for the most part on Wednesday. The focus was on economic data from Japan and South Korea. South Korea reported that unemployment fell to 2.4% in August, the lowest level since 1999, while a Reuters poll of Japanese business sentiment showed that business confidence among large manufacturers fell to plus 4 in September, a seven-month low, from plus 10 in August. Sentiment among non-manufacturing companies fell for the third consecutive month to plus 23 from plus 24. As a result, the Japanese yen rose to its highest level against the US dollar since January, trading at just under 141.70. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% and the broad-based Topix slipped 0.8%, extending its six-day losing streak. The South Korean Kospi fell 0.2%, while the small-cap Kosdaq gained 1.6%. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 fell by 0.2% and in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.2%.

German inflation rate below 2% for the first time in three years

In Germany, the rate of consumer price inflation fell to 1.9% in August from 2.3% in July, falling below the 2% mark for the first time since March 2021. According to the Federal Statistical Office, energy prices in particular were 5.1% lower than a year earlier. By contrast, food and services rose by 1.5% and 3.9% respectively. Core inflation, i.e. excluding energy and food, fell from 2.9% in the previous month to 2.8%. According to an initial estimate, the inflation rate in the eurozone was 2.2% in August. The interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow afternoon is eagerly awaited. In view of falling inflationary pressure, the key interest rate is expected to be eased by 25 basis points.

Opec confirms demand forecast

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has confirmed its forecasts for global oil demand. In the current year, global demand is expected to average 104.2 million barrels per day. For 2025, Opec expects around 106 million barrels per day. However, signs of a slowdown in the global economy are weighing on demand for crude oil.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Inditex Q2.

Economic data in focus: UK trade balance and US consumer prices.
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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