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Industrial profits drop in China

China's industrial profits continued their decline in October, highlighting ongoing economic challenges despite recent stimulus efforts. Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday. US stock indices hit new highs on Tuesday despite Federal Reserve (Fed) officials indicating that further interest rate cuts are likely to be gradual, according to minutes from the central bank’s November meeting released late Tuesday. European markets were in the red across the board at the close of Tuesday’s session. Oil and gold prices were little changed as a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect. 

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

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China's industrial profits fell by 10% year-on-year in October, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. This follows a significant 27.1% drop in September, highlighting the ineffectiveness of Beijing's recent stimulus measures in reversing the downturn. Despite some improvement in profitability within the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors, overall industrial profits for the first ten months decreased by 4.3% compared to the same period last year. The ongoing deflationary pressures and slower-than-expected industrial production growth continue to challenge the economic recovery. Markets ignored the data with mainland China’s CSI 300 performing strongly, up 1.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 1.3%.

Asia-Pacific trading mixed

Beyond China, stocks in the Asia-Pacific region were mixed on Wednesday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.6%, after the country’s Consumer Price Index increased by 2.1% on the year in October, a slower pace than markets had expected. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 0.8% lower, and Korea’s Kospi fell 0.7%.

In central banking news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive cut as the economy struggles. The central bank cited subdued economic activity and lower inflation, which fell to 2.2% in the September quarter, as reasons for the rate cuts. GDP contracted by 0.2% in the June quarter compared to the March quarter and on an annual basis.

Dow and S&P 500 reach new highs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reached record highs on Tuesday, with the Dow closing up 0.3% at 44,860.31 points and the S&P 500 rising 0.6% to 6021.63 points. The Nasdaq 100 also gained 0.6% but remains slightly below its recent peak. Investor sentiment was buoyed by the positive news out of the Middle East. Auto stocks such as General Motors (-9%) and Ford (-2.6%) declined sharply due to concerns about tariffs from the incoming administration of Donald Trump.

Macroeconomic data supported the positive market sentiment, with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to 111.7 in November from 109.6 in October, marking the highest level since July 2023. The rise was primarily driven by consumers' more positive assessments of the current labour market and future job availability, which reached a nearly three-year high. Additionally, inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased to 4.9% from 5.3% in October, the lowest since March 2020.

US new home sales fall, house prices rise

New home sales in the US fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 in October, a 17.3% decrease from September's revised rate of 738,000, and a 9.4% decline from October 2023. Meanwhile, US single-family house prices increased by 0.7% in September, following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency on Tuesday. Annually, house prices rose 4.4%, matching the revised increase in August. Despite the Fed’s recent interest rate cuts, mortgage rates have surged, driven by strong economic data and concerns over potential inflation from Trump's policies. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now just below 7%, up from nearly 6% in September, which could slow real estate market activity as buyers shun higher rates.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: There is no major corporate news scheduled today.

Economic data in focus: German GfK Consumer Climate (08:00), Swiss ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (10:00), US durable goods orders (14:30), US gross domestic product (14:30), US personal consumption expenditures (14:30), US weekly initial jobless claims (14:30).

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Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
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