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US retail sales rise, boosting market sentiment

US stock markets continued their upward momentum on Monday, buoyed by a rise in retail sales. At the same time, more weak manufacturing data raised expectations for future interest rate cuts. Asian markets followed suit on Tuesday, with significant gains led by Hong Kong tech stocks. European stocks finished with moderate gains to start the week. Meanwhile, gold prices hit a record high as tariff concerns drove investors towards safe-haven assets.

Data
Autore
Shane Strowmatt, LGT
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

US Consumer Prices
© Shutterstock

US stock markets extended their recovery on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.85% to 41,841.63 points and the S&P 500 increasing 0.64% to 5675.12 points. Recent weak economic data – including a drop in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey – fuelled hopes of future interest rate cuts. US retail sales rose by 0.2% in February, following a revised 1.2% decline in January, indicating moderate economic growth in the first quarter. Despite these gains, consumer sentiment has dropped to a near 2.5-year low in March due to tariffs and federal worker layoffs. Meanwhile, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey revealed a significant drop in factory activity for March, with the index falling to -20 from 5.7 in February, far below the market’s expectation. New orders plummeted to -14.9, a decrease of 26.3 points, while shipments also declined notably. Inflation indexes for prices paid and received increased.

Hong Kong tech stocks lead Asian gains

Asia-Pacific markets advanced on Tuesday, following Wall Street's uptick. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 2.1% and mainland China’s CSI 300 edged up 0.3%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was trading 1.2% higher ahead of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged on Wednesday. Korea’s Kospi was essentially flat, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.1%.

Gold hits record high amid tariff fears

Gold prices surged to a record high above USD 3000 per ounce on Tuesday, driven by investor concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Spot gold traded as high as USD 3017.30 on Tuesday. The weaker US dollar and ongoing tariff uncertainties have bolstered demand for gold, which has increased over 14% year-to-date.

OECD cuts global economic outlook

The OECD has revised down its global economic growth forecasts, citing the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Global GDP growth is now expected to slow to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2024. US GDP growth is projected to drop to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, compared to earlier forecasts of 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively. The OECD attributes these adjustments to increased trade barriers and geopolitical uncertainties, which are dampening investment and consumer spending.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Fraport and Xiaomi. Annual general meeting at Qualcomm.

Economic data in focus: SECO Swiss economic forecast (09:00), German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (11:00), Canadian Consumer Price Index (13:30), US building permits (13:30), US industrial production (14:15).

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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