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Yield increase dampens record chase on Wall Street

US stocks declined on Monday after a week of significant gains. The yield on the ten-year Treasury rose over ten basis points to 4.21%, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts due to economic resilience. Asian stock markets slipped on Tuesday, trailing a mixed session on Wall Street, while Gold retreated after reaching record highs. 

Data
Autore
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

US banks
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Asian stocks mostly declined on Tuesday as uncertainty over interest rates and the upcoming US presidential election deterred risk-taking, while Chinese markets gained following an interest rate cut. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led losses, dropping temporarily 1.7%, despite yen weakness, as concerns over the Bank of Japan's rate policy weighed on sentiment. Broader Asian markets, including South Korea’s Kospi and Australia’s ASX 200, also retreated some 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively. Conversely, Chinese stocks rose modestly, buoyed by a larger-than-expected rate cut from the People’s Bank of China aimed at stimulating economic growth. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained about 0.5%.

Dow drops amid market pullback

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 330 points, or 0.8% to 42,931,60, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% ending the session at 5853.98. Investor concerns over sustained high interest rates impacted consumer and homebuilder stocks, notably Target and Builders FirstSource, which each fell more than 3.5%. Among the weakest Dow stocks, the securities of the insurer Travelers, the pharmaceutical company Merck & Co and the credit card provider American Express each lost more than two percent. The Nasdaq 100 closed 0.2% higher at 20,361.47. Shares of chipmaker Nvidia resumed their record chase and gained about 4% on the back of expectations of a continued strong business performance in the field of artificial intelligence.

Ten-year Treasury yield jumps 

The yield on the ten-year Treasury surged nearly ten basis points to 4.21% as investors analysed several speeches from Federal Reserve officials. The two-year Treasury yield also increased by about six basis points to 4.04%, as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan advocated for a gradual reduction in interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee will present its regular economic report, the so-called Beige Book, on Wednesday, after the Fed recently had lowered its key interest rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75% to 5.00%.

Gold retreats after reaching record highs

Gold prices stabilised on Monday after reaching a record high of USD 2740.37 per ounce earlier in the session. Year-to-date, spot gold is up more than 30%. Despite uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and Middle East tensions, higher US Treasury yields, and a stronger US dollar weighed on gold, leaving it little changed at USD 2723.35 per ounce. Silver also hit a near 12-year peak, trading at USD 33.66 per ounce. Analysts predict gold could reach USD 2900 per ounce over the next year, supported by potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

European stocks decline 

European stocks closed lower on Monday as investors anticipated key corporate earnings and monitored heightened Middle East tensions. The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell by 0.7%, with insurance stocks leading the losses, while oil and gas stocks rose. Europe's largest software maker SAP earned significantly more in the third quarter despite the tense economic situation in many regions and is setting itself higher targets for the year as a whole. Earnings before interest and taxes, adjusted for special items, rose stronger than anticipated by 27% to EUR 2.24 billion.

German producer prices fall sharply in September

German producer prices fell by 1.4% year-on-year in September, significantly more than analysts' expectations of a 1% decline. The drop was primarily driven by a 6.6% decrease in energy prices, with mineral oil products falling by 14.4%. Excluding energy, producer prices rose by 1.2% due to higher costs for capital, consumer, and intermediate goods. Additionally, EU-harmonized German inflation eased to 1.8% in September from 2% in August.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: Quarterly figures from Danaher, Deutsche Börse, Freeport-McMoRan, Kuehne + Nagel, Lockheed Martin, Logitech, and Philip Morris.

Economic data in focus: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (16:00), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks (16:30).

 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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