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Fed on the verge of the interest rate turnaround - 25 or 50 basis points?

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut key rates today for the first time in four years, thereby ushering in the long-awaited interest rate turnaround. The big question remains as to how big the initial interest rate move will be. On stock markets, investors remained cautious in the run-up to today's interest rate decision, although the Dow and the S&P 500 reached new record levels during Tuesday's trading. 

Data
Autore
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Tempo di lettura
5 minuto

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Investors are eagerly awaiting the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at 8:00 p.m. (CET) this evening. After the inflation rate in the US fell from its peak in mid-2022 at 9.1% to 2.5% in August 2024 and the US labor market showed increasing signs of weakness in recent months, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell now seems ready to initiate the interest rate turnaround in the US. Powell already provided concrete indications at the central bank symposium in Jackson Hole about three weeks ago. The only question is by how much the Fed will lower the key interest rate. A rate cut of 25 or 50 basis points is under discussion. Hopes of a "jumbo cut" were dampened by the publication of the latest US consumer prices for August, with core inflation remaining unchanged at a high level of 3.2%. Consequently, the press conference and the Fed's latest economic and interest rate forecasts are likely to be followed with great interest.

Dow and S&P 500 reach new highs before Fed decision

On Wall Street, stock indices were unable to maintain their gains ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision on Tuesday and ended the day almost unchanged. The Dow Jones Industrial reached a new record high right at the start of trading and closed at 41,606.18 points. The S&P 500 also reached new highs, but ultimately remained at the previous day's level of 5634.58 points. The indices on the Nasdaq also closed almost unchanged from the previous day. The yield on ten-year US government bonds remained at 3.65% ahead of the Fed decision.

In Asia, too, markets are eagerly awaiting the Fed announcement

Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region traded without a clear trend on Wednesday, after both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new highs on Wall Street. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo gained around 0.7% and the broad-based Topix gained 0.5%. Japan's imports and exports rose 2.3% and 5.6% respectively in August from a year earlier, according to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, with both figures well below expectations. Stock markets in South Korea and Hong Kong remained closed today. Indonesia's central bank will announce its interest rate decision today. The benchmark rate is at its highest level since 2016, even though inflation has cooled well within the central bank's 1.5-3.5% target. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 dipped slightly, ending a four-day winning streak that had pushed the index to a record high on Tuesday. The CSI 300 in mainland China remained almost unchanged after closing at its lowest level since January 2019 on Friday.

ZEW economic indicator falls for third month in a row 

The outlook for Germany's economy has deteriorated further, according to the latest survey by the Mannheim-based economic research institute ZEW (Center for European Economic Research). The indicator fell significantly more sharply than expected (consensus 17.0) from 19.2 to 3.6 points, and for the third time in a row. According to the ZEW, "hopes of an imminent improvement in the economic situation are visibly fading".

According to ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, it can be assumed that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to ease key interest rates. Last Thursday, the ECB cut the key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.5%, thus continuing the interest rate turnaround that began in June. Capital markets expect the key interest rate to fall further to 2.5% by the middle of next year.

Brexit continues to weigh on UK economy

According to a recent study by Aston University in Birmingham, the consequences of Brexit for the British economy are still being felt and the negative effects are even expected to intensify. British trade with the EU is suffering from the country's withdrawal from the EU single market in January 2020. This is despite the free trade agreement that was subsequently concluded. According to the university's calculations, Britain's exports to the EU fell by 27% between 2021 and 2023. "The negative impact of the FTA has intensified over time, with 2023 showing a steeper trade decline than in the years before," Aston University commented.

Corporate and economic calendar

Corporate news in focus: No relevant company results are due today.

Economic data in focus: Consumer and producer prices UK, consumer prices eurozone. From the US: housing starts and building permits, as well as the FOMC interest rate decision and press conference with interest rate projections.
 

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd, Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd

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